Briefelection
The math behind a Democratic wave — or a GOP upset
Data: The Downballot and Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. (Balance of power accounts for opposing party gains due to redistricting.) Map: Kavya Beheraj/Axios Redistricting has helped House Republicans build a seawall that can withstand a roughly 5-point Democratic wave. Why it matters: Early readings are pointing to something twice that size — enough to wash away the GOP House majority [1].
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Sources
This is the neutral brief the press writes once, for everyone, before each reader’s paper adds its own so-what. It links out; it does not republish. 1 article clustered.