Traders see limited effect from Treasury bond buyback push on 10-year yields
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is using a range of department tools to try to cap rising bond yields, but prediction market traders do not expect a sharp decline [1]. On Kalshi, traders put 56% odds that the 10-year Treasury yield ends 2026 at or above 4.75% and 27% odds it finishes above 5%, with the 10-year trading near 4.70% at midday Monday [1]. The Treasury said last week it would double buybacks of off-the-run long-end securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and Bessent said on CNBC the operations could exceed that minimum [2]. Two senior Treasury officials said the near $1 trillion Treasury General Account could help fund the purchases, though the department has not stated how the buybacks will be financed [2].
Sources
- cnbc.com · Prediction market traders doubtful Bessent’s bond interventions will push yields lower Aug 24, 2026
- cnbc.com · Bessent could tap near $1 trillion Treasury General Account to fund bond buybacks, sources said Aug 24, 2026
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